As shown in recent videos, the MJO is becoming more amplified once again and may provide more of a mid-latitude influence. As can be seen in the latest GFS ensemble model, the MJO wave is rotating back through the same cool phases which brought our cold April and May and as expected, the models show the Greenland/Iceland trough shifting east bringing more Atlantic influence back to the UK with heat core moving into central and east Europe.

This goes right to my long term ideas for a cooler, low pressure dominated 2nd half to June, that’s if you can trust the GFS that is.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly

Precip goes back above normal, especially in a corridor from N Spain through France into Southern England.

Precip anomaly

5-day mean 2m temp anomaly

With a UK max of 29.7C yesterday, we’ve failed to reach 30C in 2 out of 3 attempts, dare I say if we don’t make it tomorrow with another brief surge of heat, we won’t make it this month at all. Last time we failed to reach 30C during one of the 3 meteorological summer months was August 2017.