The month of July has been, as forecast, a very changeable month dominated by lower than normal pressure. That lower than normal pressure has delivered frequent spells of rain and with more cloud than sunshine, sub-par temperatures.

In fact, we may well have just went through our coldest July for the UK since 2012 and if we fail to crack the 30C mark by the 1 August, that would be the first July since 2011 when the UK maximum remained below 30.

It’s like the atmosphere read my summer forecast for this year and thought I’d give Mark a break after a big bust on the past winter…

Actual June and July geopotential height anomaly.

What a contrast to 2019. While we could see the first failure to reach a 30C July day for the UK in nearly a decade, on this day last July we saw our warmest day in UK history when 38.7C was achieved at Cambridge Botanic Gardens. This surpassing narrowly surpassed the previous UK all-time maximum of 38.5C set at Faversham, Kent in August 2003.

The 25th this year was considerably different to this same day last year.

Today’s highs (25th). (Maximum was 25.6C at Heathrow)

25th July, 2019. (Maximum 38.7C at Cambridge)

As for the remainder of the month, we have more of the same, Atlantic weather fronts pushing in and managing to hold back the Azores high. The Icelandic low has been simply too strong this month but it would appear we have one last shot at some real summer heat and a chance at seeing 30C in the Southeast, just before the calendar flips to August and meteorological summers final month.

The CFSv2 has shows the same 500mb height anomaly as we’ve seen pretty much all month for the final week of July.

Unfortunately for sun seekers, August remains likely to follow in July’s disappointing footsteps.

CFSv2 500mb height anomaly for August.

It’s actually pretty impressive just how cool Europe overall is looking.

That cool could be due to the fact that the model sees ‘wetter than normal’ for much of the continent.

I believe a lot of the reason behind the cool summer so far is at least, in part down to the persistent cool waters around and especially west of the UK and Ireland over the open North Atlantic. After all our mean air flow has been blowing over this 1-2C below normal waters, especially in July.

What’s the cause of this cold water or ‘cold blob’? It may or may not be attributed to the melting of this year’s arctic sea ice or melting ice off Greenland but it’s interesting how similar 2020 is shaping up like 2012 with the cool and wet for W Europe (coolest since 12), USA witnessing it’s hottest July since 12 and we’re seeing the same level, even greater ice melt than 12.

Tags: featured, monthly-outlook