We have an ocean to atmosphere feedback setup and pattern which could spell a serious problem to the US. Waters from the Gulf of Maine down to the Delmarva are running at record warm levels. SST’s of 84 degrees have been reported off Cape May, NJ.

There’s an noticeable response in the atmosphere above with ridging 2-3 standard deviations above normal. The strength of this ridge appears likely to force Florence into the US East Coast and with waters in close to the coast in the 84-86F range, this could pose a serious threat.

It’s been record warm on land quite likely with the support of record warm water offshore, aiding the enhancement of the ridge aloft.

https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1037464806318592000

https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1037821124065804288

https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1037143437206843393

The vast spread in track for Florence is turning west and narrowing as the ‘out to sea’ scenario is closing.

https://twitter.com/twcMarkElliot/status/1038151187986567169

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1038174967010086912

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Helene has formed off the African coast.