Most bank holiday weekend’s are associated with dull, dreary, cool and wet but not this early May bank holiday. It’s looking unlikely to be a blip too thanks to a near record strong positive NAO which is deepening an Atlantic trough but powerful downstream Europe ridge.

Not only does this weekend and upcoming 7 days look promising but the majority of May is in fact looking pretty decent. Tough to say whether temperatures will hold up like they are this weekend given that the ridge core is expected to transfer into Scandinavia but one thing looks likely, the dry theme looks to be locking in.

With a ridge over central Europe and trough over the Atlantic, western Europe including the UK and Ireland is enjoying the influence of warm SSW winds.

For the next 7 days, the CFSv2 has undoubtedly got the ridge as the dominant player, shielding much of the continent from Atlantic weather.

 

Check out the 7-day rainfall anomaly.

As for weeks 2 and 3, well the high lifts north but continues to shield the UK but heights lower over Iberia and the Med.

Note precip picks up week 2 over Iberia extending up through France and maybe into the southern UK but is then beaten back south into Iberia towards the later half of May.

If the above holds true, I expect above average temps through pretty much the remainder of May for most of the UK expect far south, average to below average as well as wetter than normal over much of France, Spain and Portugal.