I guess you could say I’ve got Friday frustration as you’ll be aware if you watched the video from earlier. It’s dark and wet here in Ft William just now and I guess this sums up how I feel when it comes to computer forecast models. It seems for the last 5 years we time and time again see the models showing a -AO/NAO and then a cold signal with nice Greenland block-UK trough. That usually shows 10-15 days ahead of the projected period and as we get nearer the time, it either looses steam or flips completely.
It really does beg the question how much we can take from models barely 5-7 days out. Even when there’s 3, 5 even 7 days consistency in a particular solution, how many seemingly great cold spells just don’t materialise?
Granted I’ve not sounded the cold horn entirely but alluded to ‘potential’ but even at that, you can only get away with saying there’s a ‘potential for colder times ahead’ so many times before your not taken seriously. How far out can we really forecast ahead?
Interestingly the models do show spells of cold in a still ‘transient’ pattern but when you look at the GFS ensemble for both AO and NAO, you’d think we were heading for the deep freeze and mega blocking. The ensemble remains with the deep negative in both indexes for a time before coming back up but the models have retreated on the depth of amplification. It’s mid November so we can expect colder weather right?
Ramp over. Enjoy your weekend and I’ll be back Monday in hopefully a better mood.
Yes I understand that the polar vortex is pretty much normal for the time of year but why is there so many times a disconnect between models 7-10 days out and reality in an age where millions is spent on these seemingly useless tools?
As we progress through the next 7 days we could see the models return to a colder solution and or there will be indications of a weakening polar vortex. We’ll get excited once again but the point I’m tying to make is we don’t appear to have progressed any in the medium never mind long range period in recent years and it feels like we’re easily jumping on the cold only to be left with egg on your face when the models decide it’s no going down that road and remaining ‘westerly’ despite showing a cold solution continuously for a week. The media circus certainly doesn’t help with their doomsday headlines with no or little meteorological merit.
We shall see.
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