As east equatorial Pacific waters continue cooling, it looks like we on the brink of a La Nina.

A very strong subsurface cool pool is on the brink of surfacing. Max anomaly near -4C at ~100m depth. #LaNina pic.twitter.com/OkHDQyZwu5

— Ethan Sacoransky (@blizzardof96) September 29, 2017

About as #LaNina as you can get here in week 2. Big time late season warmth in the east with a budding trough Northwest. #natgas pic.twitter.com/Ob561m1Vua

— Ed Vallee (@EdValleeWx) September 28, 2017

The current state of the Pacific has had La Niña written all over it for some time.. the world won't remain warm for much longer pic.twitter.com/eKWbLWbk1h

— Climate Realists🌞 (@ClimateRealists) September 28, 2017

Many medium to long range modelling suggests a warm East/Southeast, cool West/Northwest October which is reflective of a La Nina type pattern and often October can reflect the forthcoming winter pattern too.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2 metre temp anomaly shows the warm ESE/cool WNW.

CFSv2 weeklies are even stronger but suggesting the same solution.

CFSv2 for October

US tropical threat very much remains

As for the tropics, well this upper pattern with Hudson Bay ridge suggests a vulnerable Gulf and Southeast coast through the first half of the month. In-close development is highly possible even within the next 5-10 days.

Elevated risk for tropical disturbances across the western Caribbean, Gulf, & Florida driven by La Nina-like VP dipole during October. pic.twitter.com/677wDUa0xk

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 29, 2017

Water temperatures across the eastern equatorial Pacific have taken a tumble since July, favoring Atlantic tropical activity. #LaNina Watch pic.twitter.com/00Pd1g6RFM

— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 28, 2017

There are indications that a La Nina may be forming in the Pacific. Could that lead to active late hurricane season.https://t.co/36IbATFevr pic.twitter.com/a5qJKNL8Wb

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) September 26, 2017

Tags: La Nina