Your well aware of how poor and repetative our weather pattern has become in recent weeks and even in recent days I pointed out the importance of the Tropical Atlantic waking up and it’s role in potentially resetting the mid latitude pattern.

Gert has formed east of Florida and shall ride the western flank of a strong Bermuda high over the next 5 days.

Very good cross model agreement on Gert dissipating over the N Atlantic WEST OF IRELAND which strongly hints at weakening the westerly and driving a stronger Azores ridge northward.

 

The current jet stream remains strong and firmly zonal driving lows across the Atlantic and over Ireland and UK through the rest of this week.

Today’s rain clears followed by a drier, brighter tomorrow but the next lows arrives Wednesday followed by another Thursday-Friday.

Wednesday

Thu-Fri

GFS ENS 7-day mean says it all.

The models will most certainly alter their solutions through this week but I like the concept of Gert briefly becoming the season’s 2nd hurricane before weakening, transitioning and eventually merging with a low coming off Canada. The heat release into the mid latitude flow may give the atmosphere the kick it needs with Gert and another low forcing trough deepening over the North Atlantic and downstream pumping of the Azores ridge northwards in over the UK.

GFS ensemble goes to that solution days 6-10 and particularly 11-15.

With the return of a dominant ridge, one would expect temps flip from below to above average.

Summer may make a return towards next weekend (26th).

Tags: jet stream, tropical storm gert, uk summer pattern