We’re into August and right on schedule the tropics are beginning to bubble with a healthy chain of AEW (African easterly waves) riding a prominent AEJ (African easterly jet) out over a warmer than normal MDR (Main development region) stretching from Africa to Mexico.

There are two waves currently being monitored and are expected to develop.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/893103154212065280

Pattern and guidance suggest 99L could well be a classic, long tracked system which eventually becomes a hurricane within the next 10 days.

Then we have 90L

Dry air or Sahara dust is beginning to retreat north as you would expect at this time of year along with a reduction in westerly wind shear. An additional 2 players which all point to an increasingly favourable setup and environment for an active  heart to the 2017 hurricane season.

Big reduction in wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean this week compared to last.

As of August 2, we’ve had 5 named storms so far. Thanks to record warm water which gave birth to systems in April and May this year.

Modelling shows widespread upward motion over the Atlantic as we head for the heart of the season.

Many LR models have the strongest positives across the Northern US this August and that leaves the US coast open.

No surprise that CSU has upped their numbers for the season.

Tags: atlantic hurricane season 2017