With at least 5 tropical cyclones roaming the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific jet stream has strengthened therefore enhancing the downstream North America/North Atlantic jet stream and cyclogenesis. This explains the UK’s current and near term disappointing weather pattern frequently consisting of sunshine and showers along with a chilly breeze.

Unfortunately UK and Irish sun seekers will need to head for the Med through the next 7-10 days as modelling shows low pressure firmly anchored off NW Scotland keeping things cool and frequently unsettled but this trough is helping enhance the downstream ridge over Europe and the transport of heat from Africa into south-central Europe. Not good news for drought stricken Italy.

The below 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly days 1-5 and 6-10 say it all.

Total precipitation off the GFS ensemble through the next 10 days.

Where dry it’s hot (Italy, Balkans etc) and where wet it’s cool (UK/Ireland).