94L is just the latest system showing signs of organisation on departure of the African coast. Unusually warm waters combined with an unusually hot Sahara are likely behind the Cabo Verde seasons early start.

No surprise in the recent early activity when the waters of the MDR (main development region) where warmest on record for the month of June.

Sahara turns intensely hot early

Typically a mature AEJ (African easterly jet) with bountiful convective disturbances doesn’t occur until mid to late summer when the Sahara is at it’s hottest but mid summer intensity heat has hit North Africa early, helping form a mature AEJ and in turn African wave train far earlier than usual. Helped by record warm water west of Africa.

The below infrared image from June 30 shows a late August or September-like view with deep convection spanning Africa’s entire equatorial region.

So, were watching 94L. NHC has this at a 70% chance of development.

Current setup.

There’s cross model agreement that 94L slowly develops and tracks north of the Lesser Antilles.

About half the major models take this to TS status and the other half keep it as a disturbance with no closed low level center.

Will have more info on this in the coming days.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Secret Flying