You would think a switch has been flicked within our atmosphere above. Rather than persistent high pressure dominating, we’re firmly back in an unsettled, disturbed Atlantic pattern with frequent lows sweeping across our shores bringing spells of wind and rain.

GFS ensemble upcoming 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly.

A rather soggy 5 days ahead as a result.

For some including parts of NW England and Wales today/tonight and NE Scotland tomorrow, rain total will mount up given persistency in the heavy rainfall. Flooding, yes flooding could become an issue.

Today’s low has focused it’s rainfall across Wales and England, sunshine and showers for much of Ireland and Scotland.

2-3 inches of rain is likely to have fallen by the end of today in upslope areas of N Wales and NW England.

Expect gales for a time across the SW, S and SE of England and coastal Belgium, Netherlands.

Tomorrow sees heavy and persistent rain as well as increased wind over Scotland, especially Caithness down into Aberdeenshire and Tayside.

Positioning of low pressure in Atlantic vs high over Europe is key to tapping and lifting tropical energy northward. Why our rain totals are pretty big.

A brief break in the wet, windy weather arrives SW to NE during Wednesday but the rise in pressure is brief before the next low sweeps in bringing another spell of wind and rain.

Rainfall will once again be heavy and persistent, aided by tropical flow.

While the next 5 days looks frequently wet and windy, the following 5 days looks to be much drier and more settled thanks to building pressure. For how long? That remains to be seen.

If the GFS ensemble is right, we hold the warmer, drier theme into the 10-16 day. Here’s hoping!

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Chris Smith‏ @Chris74747755

Tags: rainy uk