After a very mild, spring-like 18.3C at Kew Gardens and Northolt Monday, the increasingly turbulent Atlantic is ready to pounce and this process is already showing this afternoon. As winds increase, so the rains sweep in and the temperature decreases through today. Following the band of rain associated with the cold front, blustery showers follow turning increasingly to snow over high ground.

The trans-Atlantic jet stream is alive and well, crossing the pond at between 150-180 mph today but it’s set to excellerate towards 190-200 mph, enhancing cylogenesis  just west of Ireland and setting the stage for a stormy Thursday.

The upper pattern is supportive of fast LP formation and rapid deepening over the UK as the powerful NW jet forces air to pile up within the trough crossing the UK, this forces lowering pressure and strengthening winds as a result. In response to cross model output, the Met Office has named Storm Doris for Thursday!

So, the first in a series of lows pass to the N of Scotland tonight bringing severe gales to the far north, gusty elsewhere.

With winds veering from SW to NW, February is about to come back hard with subtropical handing over to polar-maritime with Thursday likely to see not just stormy but snowy conditions across the Northern UK.

The models have the core of strongest winds on the traditional southern flank which puts England and Wales in the firing line for gusts of 70-80, locally 90 mph.

Track of this developing system is everything and latest model runs see the low crossing Ireland in a potential rapidly deepening phase and then crossing northern England or southern Scotland. The importance of this? Snow will break out on the northern flank of the circulation and so the bulk of Scotland could be in for more snowy than stormy weather while south of the centre, strength of wind will be the be story, especially over the Pennines.

Early yellow and amber warnings have been posted for wind and snow.

Watch today’s video.