Up until now, our Atlantic pattern has been rather subdued, largely down to a strong blocking high over Europe combined with weak to modest strength jet which has been easy to split on approach the Ireland. However, it looks like things are about to liven up during next week as arctic wave 3 of 3 descends upon the eastern side of North America. This enlarged temperature imbalance swept out over the Atlantic shall enhance the Atlantic jet and consequentially, cyclogenesis. Until now, the Europe high has been stronger than the Atlantic low but that changes next week.

The thermal gradient increase over N America both enhances the Atlantic jet and cyclogenesis, especially when there’s a blocking high over Europe. All this energy crossing the Atlantic gets piled up and deep depressions are the result. This is a setup we know all too well from recent stormy winters.

Another aspect to consider is that with the series of arctic waves sweeping south and out over the Atlantic, these lows shall have colder air to entrain and work with and so I expect not just a turn to stormy weather but colder, albeit Atlantic modified!

Like we saw during the back to back cold US winters of 2013-14, 2014-15, the arctic air makes it across the Atlantic bringing significant snowfall over the UK high country and even to low levels across the North. The GFS shows both a turn to not just unsettled to stormy but colder with an increased chance of seeing snow.

The GFS sees this arctic air entrainment and resulting heavy snowfall over the West Highlands of Scotland.

Watch this morning’s video.