This has been the SSTA profile the past few years. Very warm N Pacific.

Very cold central North Atlantic

This has been the resulting winter pattern for Europe thanks to the above SSTA profile.

But this year with the opposite showing, this is where I think we’re going in 2016-17.

A Rough Guide to the Jet Stream: what it is, how it works and how it is responding to enhanced Arctic warming

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The reason for change? I want to show you the significant changes in global SSTA’s from recent times. Note the sharp west-east cooling over the North Pacific and less cold water over the North Atlantic. The reason is opposite the past few years with stronger than normal Pacific jet stream (sharp cold over warm gradient over Asia enhancing jet and forcing upwelling over the Pacific) and weaker Atlantic jet thanks to persistent blocky pattern, no upwelling. This could be crucial in terms of Greenland blocking and weak Icelandic low which has been strong really since the cold spring of 2013.

Check out the cooling N Pac and slight warming N Atlantic in just the last 7 days!

The polar vortex remains very weak and as a result the Arctic Oscillation is negative and with the GFS predicting another heat flux injection across the pole, the vortex may re split like we saw in mid/late October which led to a cold open to November with resulting UK snow. A piece of the PV returning to Eurasia would bring the return of cold and likely colder ait into Europe.

GFS leans UK and Europe on the colder side of average through the remainder of November but we may be seeing the early signs of a significant cold spell developing in the stratosphere.

A PV split is seen by the GFS and if occurs in late November, we won’t see it’s true effects until early, perhaps mid December but check this out!

See this morning’s video.

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