We’re not only waking up to the news that Trump has been elected as the 45th US president but some are waking to snow this morning and it continues to snow in a few spots. Not only have it been confined to high ground but snow covers the ground in parts of Glasgow.

Heading home from Cumbernauld last night.

When looking at the past and present pattern, the still peak polar vortex, immense Atlantic to Pacific snow cover and cold and model projections, this chilly spell for the UK and Western Europe isn’t just a blip or a tease but may well be a sign of things to come in a matter of a couple of weeks and not sometime in January or beyond.

4 factors of interest.

1. Weak polar vortex
2. Huge Eurasia snowpack
3. Lack of sea ice on Eurasia side of Arctic Ocean
4. Persistent blocking OVER ice free area of Arctic Ocean

This all points to a colder Europe.

If that’s not enough, the GFS has yet another rare early PV split.

This coincides nicely with a colder GFS ensemble solution during the second half of November.

Note in the 5-day 500mb height anomalies below how we see the Icelandic low return but only briefly before we have a Greenland/Iceland ridge, UK trough by the 11-15 day.

If that’s not enough, the typically warm CFSv2 has flipped to colder signal for December.

Back in January 2006, the polar vortex sat right over Eastern Europe bringing incredible cold.

No getting away from the fact Western Europe was mild but the above is quite possible given the weakness and fluid nature of the artic atmosphere this year. Sudden stratospheric warming events and complete PV collapse is much more likely this winter.

The real test come with atmosphere OVER THE ATLANTIC as I think Europe is heading for a very cold winter but Western Europe, well that still remains more uncertain.

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See today’s video.

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