Thanks to the powerful Scandinavian block, the Atlantic has been absent from the Northwest Europe pattern. Atlantic traffic has been following the diversion route into Iberia where it’s turning cooler and more unsettled.

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As we progress into late week, Hurricane Nicole will have crossed Bermuda and will be lifting northward into the western North Atlantic. As it lifts north, the thermal gradient shall increase and so the jet stream over North America strengthens considerably. This energy will transfer out across the Atlantic and Greenland and will have the power the shift the blocking high over Scandinavia eastward into Russia so we will see the Atlantic influence return into early next week. In fact we see an indirect influence late this week and into the upcoming weekend as the Iberia low lifts north bringing milder and more unsettled weather into the UK. See this morning’s video!

While the UK warms, so eastern Europe cools as the high pressure core settles over NW Russia.

10-12C difference between UK and Russia Sunday PM.

One can expect milder nights for the UK but increasingly cold nights in eastern Europe beneath the high.

According to the GFS, the thermal gradient really tightens between ocean and Greenland mid next week and could drive a 200 mph jet in between.

The 500mb geopotential height anomaly and 850mb temp contrast as tropical and arctic air meet over the NW Atlantic, hence a powerhouse jet in between!

Atlantic low pressure will bring spells of wind and rain to Ireland and UK but later next week, high pressure near to the Azores looks to build in then retrograde west into a much larger high extending from subtropical Atlantic up to Iceland. This could make for a brief spell of colder weather with winds blowing into the UK from eastern Scandinavia and the Baltics.

The below GFS jet stream charts show the evolution of this GFS solution through the next 10 days. Interesting but complex times as we progress through October.

See this morning’s video.

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