Well Matthew continues to approach Jamaica and Hispaniola with fluctuating intensity with wobbling. This is what you would expect with such a large, powerful hurricane.

Here’s the latest stats.

Latest visible satellite loop. We could well see this re-strengthen a little prior to some weakening due to land interaction but I’m afraid no matter what, this has the potential to bring devastating wind and flooding.

Once it passes between Cuba and Hispaniola, I expect this to re strengthen as it moves through the Bahamas.

A potential flood disaster in the making!

Latest on the models

How strong?

There is growing concern when looking at the models that the environment becomes highly favourable for intensification. No shear and excellent upper divergence over 30C (86F) water.

HWRF

GFDL

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As for the Lower 48, we have a significant early season snowstorm on the way with some favoured spots within the N Rockies likely to see 2-3ft!

Check out the upper trough, surface/precip,  2m temp departures and snow totals forecasted.

In between the Western trough/Eastern ridge we’ve got the usual fight and resulting severe weather threat.

See this morning’s video.

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