The large-scale weather pattern continues to crank into autumn gear with strengthening jet and deeper lows in which Ireland and the British Isles are in the firing line.

The one factor I would say that isn’t so autumnal just yet is the temperature. The active storm track continues to favour warmer than normal but the GFS does show a brief taste of something colder. It’s essentially the tropical pattern which is controlling our thermostat.

Enjoying the lack of chill or hating it? Thank or blame a stronger than normal Azores high and weaker Bermuda high. The breeding ground of low pressure develop is essentially near Bermuda and with persistent southwest winds, we’re not taping any cold from Greenland or Arctic. However the GFS sees a westward shift in high pressure later in the week and this shuts down the SW door and opens the door to lows coming in off Greenland but it’s brief.

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Below is the GFS surface/precipitation charts for the week and into the weekend. Notice the depth of low pressure, the first being the remnant low of Karl. It’s core of strongest winds are expected to cross Scotland tomorrow night into Wednesday packing severe gale or storm force wind, another low just as deep takes a similar path Thursday-Friday bringing more wet and very windy weather but nothing particularly cold. It’s AFTER that second low hits and moves away that the Bermuda high BRIEFLY strengthens and the Azores high deflates, the storm track shifts from SW to NW and therefore we look to plug some Greenland air and this is likely to present low double digit highs with chilly nights accompanied by mountain snows.

Note the BRIEF westward shift in the mid atlantic ridge takes lows in more from Greenland rather than from subtropics.

Then the SW track resumes

GFS meteogram for Glasgow and London show no real cold into October’s opening week.

See this morning’s video.

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