There’s plenty of heat, humidity and energy within the atmosphere over N France and SE England. The front marking the dividing line between cool Atlantic and hot continental will likely trigger some strong thunderstorms this afternoon and through the overnight tonight as it pushes into the hot, humid air.

Firstly let’s take a look back at yesterday. While parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland only mustered a measly 14C beneath the rain clouds, in the glistening sunshine of the Southeast/East Anglia, temperatures late afternoon peaked at 31C.

Check out the contrast between Fife and Essex yesterday afternoon.

Kirkcaldy

Clacton-on-Sea

Yesterday’s Europe and UK highs

While cooler across the heart of England, today’s could be a touch hotter for the Southeast/East Anglia today with drier, brighter and warmer weather returning to Scotland. We’re closely watching that boundary as it’s likely to spark significant storms late this afternoon and evening.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Simon Cardy

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It remains a long way off but Gaston, currently a strong TS and likely to become the season’s 1st major hurricane will continue strengthening over the next 5 days as it tracks NW late week and through the weekend. However, the models remain with the idea that this system and it’s tropical energy could combine with typical baroclinic properties within the mid-latitudes to become a significant wind maker for Ireland and the UK NEXT WEEKEND. The tropical and mid-latitude pattern looks favourable for a stormy September over Western Europe.

The models see Gaston at least heading in the direction of Western Europe.

Large consensus of models show at least Cat 1-Cat 2 and a 3/4 see Cat 3.

The latest run of the GFS shows a powerful Gaston recurving and finding the weakness within the mid-Atlantic ridge and with a more zonal trans-Atlantic jet stream, the once powerful tropical entity looks to get caught and forced over Ireland and the UK.

Before then, there’s plenty more low pressure action with further surges of hot, humid air being lifting up from the continent.

The very next low to arrive late week and into the weekend looks to draw on more very warm to hot air, enhancing the threat of widespread thunderstorm activity S-N over the UK.

See this morning’s video.

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