As we enter the second half of August, I am becoming more and more optimistic of a more settled, high pressure dominated pattern. Up until now we’ve had spells of high pressure but within a low pressure dominated pattern, more so for Scotland and Northern Ireland, less so England and Wales but it looks as though we go the other way late August and likely through September.

A surge of heat is still firmly on the cards as we enter the first half of next week though the extremity of that heat has most certainly been dampened down with a maximum of 30C most likely rather than 34C. Scotland looks to flirt with the heat and while I now don’t see UPPER 20s, we should creep towards 25C somewhere.

Here comes the high later tomorrow…

By Tuesday, the HP core is centred up near Norway low pressure spawns off the parent Atlantic low and pushes towards Ireland creating an atmospheric fight as energy runs into a very warm and humid air mas which will trigger plenty of thunderstorm action.

Later next week, see the HP core elongates W-E over Scandinavia while another low looks to make an approach on Ireland. The strength of the high will be key.

The model suggests yet another low sliding into Ireland again next weekend before another ridge and heat pump returns and this is what I’m saying, high pressure is likely to become more dominant rather than low pressure.

No video today but will have one again tomorrow.

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