There’s been no shortage of heat this summer and following a record hot June for the US, July started off tame with largely regionalised heat waves. However as the dryness expanding, so did the heat.

Where dry, the heat has been running 2-4F above normal, particularly so in the Southeast and most recently the western high Plains. Where wet, humidity has been noticeably and although Amazon-like dew points have tempered the level of heat, the combination of 90-95F and 75-80F dew points has led to stifling conditions from Tennessee to North Dakota.

Last 30 day precipitation anomaly.

Drought conditions gradually expand.

Note western South Dakota/northeast Wyoming as well as North Georgia/Alabama is now under ‘extreme drought’ following a very dry last 30 to 60 days.

2m temperature anomaly to date.

Warm Water Extends From Mexico To Maine

Warm waters along the Gulf and East Coasts have a twofold influence. 1) higher humidity 2) threat of a stronger tropical cyclone if one approaches.

Dry Northeast/Warm Offshore Waters

Dry ground and warm water should and is helping enhance the Bermuda high as well as humidity making for a very warm end to July and likely August to come all the way to Maine.

Washington DC forecast from USA9

NYC forecast from ABC7

80F within Chesapeake Bay, 70F At Cape Cod

Boiling Gulf Of Mexico, First Major Hurricane Threat Since 2005 Looming?

The tropics are naturally quiet and slow starting through the first two months of the season. As we progress into August atmospheric conditions improve while waters reach their peak heat between August 15 and September 15. There is particular concern within the Gulf this year.

The Gulf waters are running record warm.

A water temperature of 95F was recorded off Tampa last week.

Why So Warm?

Lack of wind and persistent record heat!

Canadian shows a hot August on the way!

The only very dry area which sees benefit during August appears to be the Southeast.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Kushaan Shah

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