While June was dry in the Northwest (UK) and wet in the Southwest (Spain) and the heart of Europe (Germany), it was opposite in July with wet NW, dry SW but still relatively wet in central.

30-day precipitation anomaly

Despite the recent heat surge, temps are below normal across Scandinavia, average to slightly below average over the UK and warmer than normal where dry across Iberia.

The remainder of July looks to see another trough slowly push eastward across the UK within a slack upper flow and weak jet.

ANY SIGN OF SUMMER IN AUGUST?

When looking at the latest SSTA’s below, August should remain much like July over Ireland and the West/North UK with low pressure likely to continue running over the warmer than normal water extending from Azores to Norwegian Sea.

There’s no sign of prolonged warm spells, only short lived affairs in west and north Britain but the further south you go the warmer and drier it should be.

If visiting the Canaries or Mediterranean countries/islands, your in luck with a warmer, drier than normal pattern.

Some interesting stats from the last 11 Augusts in the UK.

I blame the warm AMO and the fact that waters have warmed throughout May, June and July and so feedback of warm water leads to lower than normal pressure and above normal rainfall.

So the Icelandic trough and Azores ridge both remain strong and influencial keeping Iberia warmer and drier while the Icelandic trough keeps it cooler, wetter and often unsettled across northern Ireland and Scotland with plenty of warm August sun to enjoy over SE Britain, France extending into southern and central Europe.

CFSv2 for August 2016.

500mb height anomaly

Precipitation anomaly

Temperature anomaly

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: MARK MCGHEE

Tags: featured, monthly-outlook