With the southward shift in jet stream this week thanks to cool Canadian high pressure sinking down over the Great Lakes, a swath of heavy thunderstorms are set to fire each of the next several afternoons from Texas through the Southeast up into the Mid-Atlantic.

Upper energy will be enhanced by very warm, moisture rich air lifting up from the Gulf.

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Also good for the Northeast but not Mid-Atlantic, especially West Virginia.

Both Southeast and Northeast need the rain with 53.8% of Northeast now experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

The below GFS 500mb height anomaly snap shots show the trough dropping over the East and this will push the rain and storms offshore allowing all to dry out with fresher air following.

Also worth pointing out, notice how the GFS has the NE trough back westward somewhat. This may allow the ridge off New England to back in bringing the return of warmer, more humid air. Then a trough pushes through the Northern Rockies into Northern Plains and this may pump heat out ahead over the Midwest, possibly Northeast for July 4th weekend.

As per latest CFSv2, the Northeast has a poor outlook for July but potential improvement coming for Southeast.

See this morning’s video.

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