2012 and to an extent 2015 is a classic example of how a warm, dry spring does not necessarily signify a warm, dry summer. Record warmth in March and May of 2012 when Scotland witnessed an all-time monthly record high both months was followed by a cold, washout summer and I believe stated from the get go that summer 2016 is UNLIKELY to be warm and dry, primarily based on previous El Nino to La Nina analogs.
Despite the record hot open to July last year, markvoganweather.com correctly predicted a cooler, wetter overall summer season in 2015.
Credit: Met Office
Credit: Met Office
As for continental Europe, drought and record heat went hand in hand with the worst conditions seen since 1990 and 2003.
Areas with the lowest soil moisture content since 1990 in July 2015 (in red) and in July 2003 (in blue) are shown. Credit: JRC-EDEA database (EDO). © EU, 2015
Credit: Simon Cardy
Credit: Simon Cardy
READ MORE: Europe hit by one of the worst droughts since 2003
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We have the opposite this year with dry north, soggy central, too much rainfall!
Credit: WeatherBell
A lot of water in the ground!
Credit: NASA
Despite the warm, dry May and open to June this year, I believe we have another largely disappointing summer ahead.
This soggy upcoming 10 days and 384 hour forecast is likely a good indicator.
Credit: WeatherBell
Credit: WeatherBell
Looking rather cool and unsettled for the remainder of Euro 2016 in my opinion.
Credit: Meteo France
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
See this morning’s video.
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