The start of June 2015 couldn’t be more different to 2016.

My wife and I left a cool, cloudy and rainy Glasgow visited a warm sunny Paris the first weekend of June last year.

Early June 2015

Glasgow

Paris

This year!

Glasgow

Paris

The French Open has been plagued by rain delays this year.

Last year it was the heat with temps rising into the low 30s C (low 90s F)!

With the dry ground across France in June of last year, this set the stage for a record hot start to July for Paris and London. I guarantee you there will be no such heat this summer given the wet ground south and dry north. For intense heat, you need a dry France.

Rainfall anomaly from the past week.

Temperature anomaly

Note two things, N France/SE UK which was dry and warm this time last year, well it’s the focus of coolest and wettest, more so in France and also note the sharp east-west gradient over the UK.

Current areas suffering the worst flooding.

I believe our fine, dry pattern flips around mid June and we turn our weather back in off the Atlantic where it turns more changeable.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Sebastien Mabile ‏@SebastienM

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Looking ahead, give or take shower activity, the ECMWF holds the ridge over the UK through much of next week but a break down is showing up towards day 10.

Note the CFSv2 weekly precip anomalies below show no true dry pattern on the horizon for France and as for the dry UK, well the wet south extends north.

It’s going to be tough to get hot across the flood areas of N France this year. It reached 40C on Jul 1 last year in Paris, second hottest day ever following a warm, dry spring.

See this morning’s video.

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Tags: europe floods, europe weather, paris flood, uk weather 2016