This Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast 2016 is based on the current and projected El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO), current and projected global sea surface temperature anomalies and past analogs.

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Current SSTA’s.

Based purely on the fact we are seeing the development of a La Nina following a strong El Nino, one could jump to the conclusion that this will be an active Atlantic season and opposite of last year when it was a record year in the East Pacific while the Atlantic was quiet with record wind shear racing through the Caribbean where drought conditions worsened given the level of sinking air. However, there is an UNFAVOURABLE SSTA profile in both Pacific and Atlantic.

Typically El Nino’s are favourable in the Pacific, unfavourable in the Atlantic due to lower heights in the Pacific, above normal in the Atlantic with increased wind shear through the Caribbean as air flows from high to low. It’s opposite during La Nina’s.

For the past 3 years, we’ve seen anomalous warm water over the North Pacific and to an extent it still remains albeit colder water is appearing, creasing more of a horseshoe of warm water. However only 3 times since 1900 have we seen a La Nina in a warm PDO like we have this year where you have the classic cold water extending from South America towards the dateline but warmer water off Mexico and Canada. Classic La Nina’s have a horseshoe of cool, not warm south of Alaska and west of Mexico. Warm water west of Mexico could support divergence, unfavourable for the tropical Atlantic. According to Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits, this has only occurred twice in the 1930s, once in 1985.

CFSv2 June-August projection

As for the Atlantic, we actually have a negative tripole with warm around Greenland, cold between UK and Newfoundland and importantly WARM from Canaries to New England this forces a stronger mid Atlantic tropospheric ridge which can cause sinking, not rising as well as enhanced easterly trade winds within the Atlantic’s main development region or MDR. This in turn can force the deep tropics to slightly below average SSTA’s in ITCZ.

August-October

Given the above SSTA projection, the below projected areas of rising and sinking air is plausible.

My Forecast

Total Storms: 12-16

Hurricanes: 8-10 (3-5 major)

Based on all the above, I suspect the Cape Verde and Deep Tropics could be quieter than normal but because of a warm Caribbean (lower heights) and cool off Central America (stronger heights) relative to average, we could see above normal activity within the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico, as easterly trade winds are met by westerlies pushing from Pacific to Atlantic over the Caribbean forcing the air to pile up and vent this region. Not forgetting the warm water off the US East Coast because if there’s increased activity down in the Caribbean and Gulf, some system may run up the coast and with warm water, weakening of storms could be less, enhancing the impact threat from Florida to Maine, even eastern Canada.

500mb anomaly analog

 

SST analog

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Tags: hurricane forecast 2016, vogan's atlantic hurricane season forecast 2016