Hope you enjoyed the largely fine, dry and pleasant weekend of weather because it’s going downhill this week as the high deflates to the south opening the Atlantic up. If you happen to be heading south for an early holiday to Spain, Portugal or Western Med, the weather is finally settling down and warming up.

The recent cool and unsettled weather over Spain has built up a significant and pretty impressive Mid May snow pack within the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

This morning’s infrared shows clearer skies over Iberia while the first eastbound bank of cloud looms off Ireland.

GFS ensemble 5-day 2m temp anomaly shows the cooling over UK and warming over Iberia.

The 6-10 has more pronounced warming over Iberia with the strengthening of the Azores high.

Focus of rainfall next 10 days is across the UK and Scandinavia.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Brandon Iron ‏@BrandonIron

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The big question for us here in the UK is how long does this westerly unsettled pattern last. There is cross model agreement and day by day consistency at rebuilding the ridge north before the end of the month which resettles and warms our pattern once again.

Here’s the ECMWF deterministic surface for this work week.

First low arrives Tuesday PM.

Next Thursday.

Remains unsettled across Northern UK Friday.

Continues into Saturday.

Sunday looks messy.

Warm High Pressure Set To Return…

As we look further ahead, both EPS Control and GFS ensemble in the 5-day means shows the trough holding through the next 10 days over the NE Atlantic while we’ve a strong Azores high bringing warm, sunny conditions to Spain and Portugal but in the 10-15, the high is back over the NE Atlantic.

EPS Control

GFS ensemble

See this morning’s video.

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