The El Nino continues to weaken and already this is strikingly evident against the shores of South America where waters are already turning cool-than-normal. Check out the warm water north of UK, very cold water over North Atlantic (known as cold blob) and this cooler than normal extends down along the Portugal, Morocco coasts.
Current SSTA’s.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Projected SSTA’s off CFSv2 for Jun-Aug period. (this supports ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS to the North of UK).
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Two things stand out in the above, very warm water stacked north of the UK and we appear to have a La Nina (likely too quick) in the Pacific.
In response to the warm water stacked north of the UK, the below is the 850mb temp anomalies for Jun-Aug show warmest air at 850mb against the norm to the north of UK, signalling a NEGATIVE North Atlantic Oscillation.
This would probably result in a neutral 2m temp anomaly from UK to Netherlands down to Morocco for Jun-Aug.
Precip anomaly for Jun-Aug
Month by month.
Given the fact that there’s a strong signal to BELOW NORMAL heights down the Western side of Europe in transition years between El Nino and La Nina…
Transition years between 1900-1948
Credit: Stuart Markham
1950 till now.
Credit: Stuart Markham
I’ve got to admit I am in agreement with this early CFSv2 solution on the upcoming warm season. This could turn out to be a pretty cool summer over the majority of Western Europe including Spain where they endured the warmest summer since 1969 just last year in response to the strengthening El Nino.
Notice the -NAO look to the CFSv2 solution and yes, I’m afraid these Nino to Nina transitions during summer tend to favour a -NAO.
Credit: Stuart Markham
You’ll notice the cool pattern currently and the un-April feel, especially across Northern Ireland and Scotland but this chill deepens and dives southward this weekend thanks to the currently strong negative NAO pattern which I think will continue to keep us cool.
Official Summer 2016 Forecast will be released Sunday May 1, 2016.
Credit: Natalie Chalmers
See today’s video.
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