Our stuck pattern will be very evident this week and likely through the rest of April with low pressure trapped to the SW of Ireland, surrounded by high pressure on all sides. This is a large low that is shedding fronts which are becoming trapped on the southern flank of the large, dominant blocking high draped across the northern UK extending from Greenland to Scandinavia.

Here’s a look at this morning’s visible and infrared satellite images.

Today’s the stalled rain bearing front will affect a swathe from Belfast to Bristol much of Monday while it’s drier, brighter but breezing further north.

Today’s UK snapshot.

On Tuesday that front edges up into N England/S and Central Scotland while it clears out across S/SW areas but change comes through the second half of the week as the high to the north builds and pushes the stalled front back south, introducing colder air.

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According to the latest GFS, a cool high dominates Thursday into Friday with cool but bright days followed by colder, frostier nights but then there’s a fight between a low pushing in from the north and a low edging in from the south Saturday following a cold overnight.

Throughout this week, there’s a very distinct north-south temperature contrast with mild to the south and distinctly cool to the north, especially with a frequent, nagging breeze.

Tonight sees the bulk of Scotland cool and near freezing or just below thanks to clear sky, tomorrow morning will see SW Britain and S Ireland coolest as today’s front is further north, taking the clouds with it.

Then into Wed, Thu mornings skies become clearer outwith the stalled front and so expect a rural frost with temps locally -4 or -5C, especially late week when colder air comes south. By day, only 5-9C across Scotland but to the south, 13-16C, locally 17 or 18C.

Mon PM

Tue AM

Tue PM

Wed AM

Wed PM

Thu AM

Thu Pm

Fri AM

Sat AM

The GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies show a persistent positive over Iceland which suggests the continued cooler, showery pattern for majority of the UK into May. This looks pretty common in El Nino to La Nina transition years.

2m temps

Looking dry too.

See this morning’s video.

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