We’re fast approaching the release date of the Summer 2016 Forecast (Sunday May 1). Last year was, as expected a disappointing one with plenty of rain and at times record cool following the brief spell of record heat to open July (remember the 36C at Heathrow?). This followed back to back ‘good summers’ in 2013, 2014 and the first UK wide ‘good summer’ in several years.

So what may we have in store for 2016?

There’s strong likelihood that we’re on our way to a La Nina later this year off the strong El Nino we’ve just had. This transition will clearly have significant impact locally over Europe as well as globally.

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Stuart Markham of Chorley Weather has put together put together all summers where a strong El Nino transitioned to La Nina and came up with an average 500mb geopotential height anomaly.

El Nino to La Nina summers from 1950.

Even going back to between 1900-1948, the consensus remains the same.

This tells us that it’s no coincidence that the AO/NAO has went negative this spring following positive during the winter months.

This cooler than normal pattern is keeping ski conditions excellent from Highlands of Scotland

to Spain’s Sierra Nevada

to the Alps

With the exceptions of July, the Canadian holds a -NAO through late spring and summer.

The Jun-Aug 2m temp anomaly off CFSv2.

Look at similarity to above month by month 500mb height anomaly off Canadian above to El Nino to La Nina geo height anom in El Nino to La Nina transition years between 1900-1948.

See today’s video.

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