Conditions improve through today across Spain but they go downhill over southern France while up here in Scotland, it’s less wet than yesterday with brightness returning later in the day from the west.

Yesterday’s highs across Europe. Cool across Scotland and central Spain where heavy rain clouds lingered, positively summer-like further east.

This morning’s infrared.

Coolest beneath the rain clouds over eastern Spain, warmest in west with sunshine returning.

With some sunshine, temps are likely to approach 17C in SE England this afternoon but by tomorrow, you’ll be lucky to see 12 or 13C and for most, north of Birmingham, single numbers and a biting, gusty breeze will make you want to wrap up.

The reason for the shift back to colder can be tied to North America. The same system which brought damaging winds, snow and a sharp temp drop from DC to Boston last weekend will push across the UK tonight and through tomorrow morning introducing much colder air.

Here’s that low moving off North America back on Sunday.

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Quite the beast.

Here’s a glance at the surface and 850mb temperature charts and notice how much colder the air is behind this system. Also notice the squeeze in the pressure field.

Following the main wind and rain band, clearer, colder, showery conditions follow with hail and sleet possible to low levels while hills may see a white blanket return.

With 5C at the surface and -5C at 5,000ft, there’s increased instability and lift within the atmosphere, especially during the afternoon. Some of tomorrow’s blustery ‘convective’ showers will be very heavy with sudden temp drops beneath them as they force cold aloft down to the surface, hence sleet is possible.

As we progress through the 2nd half of the week, winds veer northerly keeping it cool but less showery.

Thu-Fri sees another Atlantic low move in but with building of heights across the north, this low is forced south and becomes stuck to the SW of Ireland. That means a cloudier, showery and breezy setup over southern, possibly northern Ireland as well as Wales and southern England, brighter up over Scotland.

As highlighted here for up to a week now, the AO/NAO is tanking into negative territory with a strong Greenland block developing.

The reason? Remember this…

What Lies Ahead Next 7-10 Days?

Expect low over high with little or no Atlantic influence across the Northern UK, Scandinavia while lows keep things unsettled across Southern UK, France and Iberia at times. Bright days, cold nights under northern high pressure.

Even the 11-15 has blocking with locked trough SW of UK.

5-day mean 2m temp anomaly

See today’s video.

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