As shown in this morning’s video, the potential appears to be on the rise for a major early spring snowstorm up the I-95 corridor Sunday into Monday.

Several factors need close monitoring throughout the Friday-Saturday as well as Sunday period.

1. the supply of colder air

Today’s system pushes through the Northeast bringing a slow drop in temperature along with shower activity.

However it’s as this feature departs so, much colder air still north of the border descends south and an arctic high shall continue to feed increasingly cold, dry air down to Washington DC.

      2. formation of low pressure

A system forms along a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast. This will draw on warm, moist air from the Caribbean and as it lifts up the coast, draws on Atlantic moisture also.

       3. phasing of energy & digging of trough

With cold air in place and the low formed in the South and lifting NNE, the crucial aspect is going to be the timing and when the trough digs. Too slow and the low may run up the Carolina coast and simply exit out to sea but if the upper stream connects and the trough digs, this should pick up the low and drive it up the coast.

ECMWF 500mb chart.

850 temps remain plenty cold throughout.

We could also see redevelopment off Virginia or Delmarva which becomes the main feature.

Check out the new run of the ECMWF for snow next 5 days. The big cities are in the bullseye!

See this morning’s video.

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