Hope you enjoyed the crisp tranquillity of recent days over the UK because we have strong system heading southern UK/northern France bound tonight into tomorrow. This heralds change into the weekend and next week.

For a while now, we’ve experienced colder air with frequent northerly flow. That however changes follow a spell of stormy weather tonight and through tomorrow with focus of storm-force wind, heavy flooding rain and some snow across South Wales and England as well as Northern France.

Heights build Thursday onwards but it’s the downwind influence of another Atlantic low which brings us spring warmth this weekend.

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Below is the latest ECMWF surface, wind gust and snow forecast during tomorrow.

MO has issued a yellow warning for wind in the Southwest of UK.

Once this system departs ENE, another strong system takes a near due north track up into Greenland and Iceland and it’s this which provides the milder air a shove filters. Until then, the air doesn’t warm that much at 850mb. The ECMWF 850 temps below day by day shows that it takes time for the column to warm over the UK.

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

As we progress through next week, the models at least hint at taking the core of this strong 1040mb surface high up north of Scotland extending was far east as eastern Scandinavia, even NW Russia and as Siberian air filters underneath this increasingly large upper level circulation, colder, easterly winds could bring the return of much colder air by next weekend and into the following week.

Both ECM and GFS are a little hazy in it’s 6-10 but keep in mind what’s ongoing within the arctic with strong stratosphere to troposphere energy transfer.

See this morning’s video.

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