With a negative Arctic Oscillation but positive North Atlantic Oscillation, we turn colder but remain unsettled.

The non -NAO means the Atlantic remains our active but the strat warm induced -AO means the jet has been forced south, meaning most of the UK is in the colder air. However with a still active jet/storm track as far north as N France/S UK, moisture from lows pushing into cold air only means one thing! Imogen was the first example of this further south storm track.

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In the wake of Imogen, colder air is filtering south and this cold will dam over the UK during the second half of the week.

The next low will essentially run the boundary separating mild from cool and the latest GFS and ECMWF models take a fairly deep low through the English Channel this weekend.

ECMWF has the -5 to -10C line covering the UK down as far as the Midlands, 0 to -5C across the South, cold enough to support snow at low levels.

By early Sunday as the low pushes through the Channel, temps are comfortably in the 0 to -5 within the low and -5 to -10 on the northern flank with the -5 to -10 being drawn south on the backside of the low.

With cold air across much of the UK and moisture from this circulation being throw north, snow is likely for parts of England and Wales. Exactly where and how much remains unknown at this point but I recon a snow event is coming to southern, perhaps central Wales and England Sat-Sun.

Further north into northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, it’s calmer but a nagging easterly wind will make it feel distinctly chilly with the return to colder days stuck at 3-6C, near or slightly below freezing with wind chill and night frosts make a comeback.

Up until this weekend, northerly flow and showers will be common with snow over higher ground but lowering as we enter Thursday-Friday.

Here is the ECMWF solution on the weekend snow potential.

ECMWF projected snowfall through 120 hours.

ECMWF projected snow cover early Sunday!

GFS looks similar but the thicknesses are a little higher than the ECMWF meaning slightly less cold air over England and Wales.

See this morning’s video for more.

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