As advertised, we have blizzard conditions on the Plains while flooding rains and increased risk for tornadoes grows this afternoon into this evening south the Mid-South. Nice mild surge up the East Coast while colder air follows in the wake of the storm.

As we look ahead in the weekend, next week and beyond, we have a real battle of the heavyweights in global drivers.

The strat warming sure is having cooling influence down over the Lower 48 next 10 days.

Down comes the cold trough along with storm threats for the East Coast.

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As a consequence of this warming and downward energy transfer from stratosphere to troposphere, we’re forcing significant height rises within the arctic and down the West Coast which means the return of arctic air south.

However, another driver we cannot ignore, the MJO which is entering warm phases and this may counteract the cooling effects of the strat warming.

So, the question is, is the cold that’s coming slightly weaker and briefer than you would expect given the strength of strat warming because of the MJI crossing through the warmest phases possible?

Notice in the day 0-15 how both EPS control and GFS ensemble show peaking of the Midwest/East trough day 5-10 then a pullback.

See video for the discussion.

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