Going by recent trend in models and latest runs, it looks like Henry will pack as much punch across Northern Ireland and Scotland as Gertrude did tomorrow. Time to batten down once again.

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ECMWF surface

Wind gusts

Core of strongest winds may in fact be a little further south than Gertrude’s, therefore the Central Belt may in fact be hit harder.

Prepare for widespread travel disruption with damaging storm force wind gusts really anywhere from the Central Lowlands north where gusts of 60-80 mph is possible.

Don’t think the air is quite as cold behind Henry as Gertrude and so the wintry side shouldn’t be as bad as what we saw the past couple of days.

Well it appears to models are beginning to show an underneath response to the strong ongoing stratospheric warming crossing the polar stratosphere with strong downward energy transfer suggesting a rush of arctic cold south into the mid latitudes.

For UK and Western Europe, I recon we’re in the thick of a cold, blocky pattern between Feb 10-15 and this could well be a much bigger deal than the cold spell seen mid Jan.

EPS control shows explosive height rises throughout the Arctic with southward ridging down over Greenland and most importantly extending into the North Atlantic.

See video for today’s disc.
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