As the title says, we have not one but potentially 2 or 3 snow opportunities today through Monday/Tuesday. While plenty have seen snow in the last few days, plenty haven’t but I think fronts running into this deep low level cold will see snowfall and lying snow starting off in western/central Scotland as well as down the spine of England this afternoon and tonight.

Arctic air is dry and so it will take time for the column to moisten and so snow falling to the surface may arrive as early as 11am or as late as 2 or 3pm in and around the Glasgow area. However I feel confident that we should see a covering in many places including Manchester, Birmingham towards London this evening.

There’s another chance at significant snow early Monday as another front pushes into the cold over the UK.

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Meanwhile down in Balkans this weekend, they are dealing with the biggest snowstorm of the season as a low deepens between bitter air and mild, moist Mediterranean air.

This morning was coldest of the season for the UK with -10C recorded in Kinbrace, Sutherland and likely the coldest of winter for Europe as a whole.

Southern Finland dipped to -36.6C this morning.

So, why is it cold? Stratospheric warming?

A storm (Frank) not the stratosphere has led to the current cold spell over the UK and Western Europe.

If we take a look at the 500mb geopotential height anomaly animation it shows the positive blossoming over the Arctic and Greenland as a result of storm Frank pushing due north and driving unusual warmth into the polar region. This forced a huge height rise throughout the troposphere.

However, up at 10mb, there’s no such warming from Greenland to Europe.

The below cross section of the polar atmosphere proves the above. The warming has been in the lower atmosphere while the upper remains cold and untouched.

Any stratospheric warming has occurred in the same place (NE Asia/Alaska) as the last 2 winters, hence the struggle to get a strong and prolonged -NAO and no SSWE and true split or collapse of the vortex.

NAO wants to go back positive.

No real sign of change over the next 10 days at 50mb.

Looks like the cold will try to hold on into Tuesday, perhaps Wednesday but this pattern is weakening.

What a difference a week makes.

Friday’s 500mb height anomaly over NH and Europe.

Next Friday!

 

First January Atlantic Hurricane In 78 Years Forms

As a result of southerly flow and strong subsidence to the east of Alex, an all-time record January maximum of 29.3C was recorded at Tenerife South Airport yesterday.

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