Our dream is about to become a reality with our long wait near over. The combined AO/NAO index appears to be heading to it’s most negative since the cold winters of 09-10, 10-11 and with such a strong polar vortex during November/December, one cannot rule out the extreme with this evolving pattern.

It remains very wet with additional AMBER warnings out for rain and flooding but like we saw in 2009, Britain looks set to go from flood to freeze within 10 days.

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What’s caught me off guard is the fact this major pattern change is coming from a system pumping heat from mid-latitudes into high latitude not from an SSWE.

The below cross section of the NH polar vortex shows the warming at the troposphere not stratosphere so essentially the mid and upper stratosphere remains strong and cold.

About as classic as it gets!

This is the kinda pattern which can lay down a UK wide snow with lows pushing into an increasingly cold atmosphere over Western Europe. Following by arctic high pressure which has the ability to send temps to -20 in countryside.

ECMWF and GFS surface shows a great pattern for snow and cold, especially January 15 onwards.

GFS

ECMWF snow cover 10 days from now.

GFS

Be sure to check out this morning’s video.

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