There’s no question, this years powerful El Nino is most certain influencing the GLOBAL weather pattern and helping drive unusually warm air from the tropics into the mid-latitudes. The strong +AO/NAO is helping with this process as the circling westerlies bringing heavy rain as well as transport heat across continents.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

This is how December’s opening week is looking globally. What really stands out in the below map is the warm continents but note the cold across Arctic North America, Greenland and North Atlantic. Very indicative of the strong +AO/NAO signal.

First 7 days of December 2015

I think as we go forward, it’s going to take time to transition given the powerful El Nino influence as well as intensity of the polar vortex. Strong PV’s lead to westerly dominance beneath the high latitudes just like we’re seeing but I am closely watching the polar strat temperatures and any changes which may be occurring as this is the initial indicator of a large-scale pattern shift down the road.

Unsurprisingly the NAO appears to be in a downward trend but not likely to go negative after really surging and helping pump a lot of subtropical warmth and moisture into the mid-latitude continents.

However, the Arctic Oscillation does appear to be heading negative somewhat negative. This is likely in response to the GFS ensemble displacing the vortex off the pole and closer to Siberia.

Notice in the 1, 7 and 10 day strat temps at 50mb how the PV gets pushed off the pole towards Asia.

This indicates some changes going on but we want to see the warming do full circle. This would give some hope at least that an SSWE could happen. The blue over Greenland extending into Europe suggests more negative heights, not supportive of cold through the remainder of December.

As stated clearly in my winter forecast. The first half of winter doesn’t look particularly cold. El Nino winters don’t tend to turn cold until after new year and there’s more ocean to atmosphere response.

The coldest month of winter for us and North America is likely February but I suspect we see a cold period during January, particularly mid to late January with something major possible in February. Just keep in mind how much cold is going to be built up over the Arctic with this powerful polar stratosphere with a core temperature nearing -90C. This may be a top 5 strong PV for December and given the models indicating the positive COVERING the Arctic and GREENLAND in February, this could be something worth waiting for.

Check out the Canadian for January, it’s going the Canadian positive migrating further north than December and just look at February!

Even March is looking good!

Note the more negative Aleutian low and positive Icelandic low. More supportive of cold for Europe than the past 2 years where it’s been opposite.

The CFSv2 monthlies also shows the northward migration of positive in January and February, hum!

Just cause the models show a colder trend mid and late winter, does it means it’s got to happen? I’m afraid no. For the past 2 straight winters, we’ve seen a strongly +NAO/AO and back during the mid summer, I had the NAO/AO positive again this winter but I believe feedback will hopefully win into January with the westward shift in nino and warmth over of the UK but it’s once again a painstaking waiting game.

As for the next 15 days, the GFS ensemble continues to show above normal temps on both sides of the Atlantic.

See video for a look at the rest of this week into next.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]