With ridging driving warm air northward into Alaska, the building cold is being forced south. This very cold air is now connecting with the northern flank of the latest Pacific low crossing the Rockies into the central Plains. With moisture wrapping into the southbound ‘coldest air of the season’, much of Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and Michigan is in for the first major winter storm of the season.

Early afternoon radar and temps.

Wind Chill already at -10 in North Dakota.

Cities such as Des Moines, Rockford, Chicago, Lansing and Detroit may all see over 6 inches. The last time Chicago saw 6+ inches in November was 1975.

As the trough deepens and cold drills into the Plains, warmth remains noticeable further east.

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Eastern highs yesterday.

Despite it still being November and the fact it’s been a warm, the depth of cold coming south will make this storm noteworthy, likely record breaking. Once through, temps plummet over the fresh snow to levels more typical of late December. This cold blast will present any record lows Sunday morning.

The GFS 500mb height anomalies show the building of heights north over both Alaska and Greenland and with strong cross-polar flow, the Arctic/Siberian express has only one place to go… Midwest!

GFS surface

A widespread 6-12 inch swath is expected across much of Iowa, northern Illinois including Chicago, southern Michigan including Detroit.

Notice the coldest compared to normal is over Northwest Canada now but by early Sunday is right where the heaviest snow has fallen over the Midwest.

This snow event is sure to break records for date and for first snowstorm of the season.

Building cold of arctic and Siberian origin has been pressing south in recent days and it’s ready to release following the first major, potentially record snow. The model has single digits over the snow cover Sunday morning.

See this evening’s video for the discussion.

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Tags: chicago november snowstorm, chicago snowstorm, Midwest snow, snow storm, winter storm