In the past 6 months, there’s been a lot of linkage between 2009 and 2015 with a very similar long term weather pattern.

Following a cool, wet, -NAO/AO summer we enjoyed a tranquil September and October and as forecasted here, we have seen a dramatic turn to wetter during November. In fact the flip and striking similarity in the flooding and location are uncanny.

Here was the scene at Cockermouth, Cumbria following record rainfall back on November 20, 2009

This was the scene at Grasmere, Cumbria over the past weekend.

Look at the similarity in surface chart between November 2009 which brought the devastating flooding and this weekend’s not too dissimilar tropical connection.

November 2009

November 2015

Where received the biggest rainfall during the past weekend?

Seathwaite Farm was the place that received 314mm (12.4 inches) of rain within 24 hours back in 2009, setting a new UK 24-hour rainfall record.

Thankfully this November’s flooding rainfall isn’t as bad as 2009 but it’s the overall pattern, setup and drivers in place that’s very interesting.

This Week: Stormy Pattern Continues

Though heaviest rains have eased today, the parade of depressions drawing tropical moisture across Ireland and the UK will continue.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

As early as tomorrow, the next named system (Barney) sweeps across the UK. This looks set to pack a punch across England and Wales rather than Scotland this time with further heavy rain. As the centre of low pressure crosses northern England, winds could become an issue later Tuesday into early Wednesday over central and south England and Wales.

Winds may gust 80 mph along the English and Welsh coasts with 50-70mph inland including Bristol, Oxford and London.

Late Week Into Weekend: 1st Cold Blast Arrives

Throughout the course of this work week, further lows tapping tropical moisture will sweep across Ireland and the UK but while this is happening, there’s big changes happening on the other side of the pond that will present us with the first cold blast of the season.

Notice in the below GFS 500mb height anomalies how 48 hours from now, ridging strengthens and builds north over eastern Canada.

By Sunday, that high has built northeast, northeast into the N Atlantic and Greenland and it’s once a low crosses the UK Thursday, on the backside we will have a strong northerly wind driving the first shot of arctic air down over the UK. Look from snow levels to drop, daytime maximums to hold in low to mid single figures and wind chills to be well below freezing.

Today’s 2m temp anomaly at 18z

Saturday’s 2m temp anomaly at 18z

The model is overdone in terms of snow but it is quite likely that snowfall could occur even down to sea level over parts of N Ireland, Scotland and England with the strength of cold northerly winds.

Daytime highs will finally be well below normal and during the longer overnight hours, ice and frost is likely to be widespread for the first time this year.

Saturday afternoon highs

Sunday morning lows

How long does this ‘cold spell’ last? It looks to last through the weekend but into next week, milder Atlantic air is likely to make a return with the continuation of a very unsettled pattern.

See this morning’s video for more.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]