How many times have we seen the models show a strong blocking high over Greenland and the North Atlantic 10-15 days out only to not materialise? It seems in the last 2-3 years or really since the record blocking and cold winters of 09-10 and 10-11, there has been one disappointment after the other regarding Greenland blocking.

The good thing is, with a decrease in solar cycle 24 and warmer North Atlantic surrounding Greenland and north of UK, the chances of a more -NAO/AO winter increases. Is it a given though? No.

We’re entering that time again when cold weather lovers look to the models in the hope of a cold solution and sure enough both ECMWF and GFS have a big blocking high developing right where we want it.

As shown in this morning’s video. The NAO/AO signal is good but tends to have greater influence mid and late winter and as for the El Nino, well it’s certainly been showing it’s hand in recent weeks with all the record warmth this November.

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While I am hopeful that we get more blocking on our side of the pole this year, I am slightly cautious at this early stage in buying into the strong Greenland block to end November but it sure is good to see the models at least point to this scenario and it’s two major models coinciding with long range, seasonal solutions.

El Nino winters, if cold, tend to provide the goods mid and late season and we saw that in a sense back in 09-10 with the true cold not arriving till December 18th.

Both Canadian and CFSv2 DO NOT have a cold December and that’s something that cannot be ignored. However based on the SSTA’s westward shift in El Nino warm pool and the middle ground solar cycle, I believe we will see spells of significant snow and cold but how soon it arrives remains to be seen.

October SST’s in the North Atlantic. Note where warmest anomalies are. Very important.

Like I say, December looks to have a firmly +NAO pattern with dominant Icelandic trough according to the Canadian.

CFSv2 Dec 2m temp anomaly also has it mild with Atlantic dominance.

However, check out the 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies and just look at what GFS operational and ensemble as well as the EPS control show. Surely their not all wrong? If correct then I suspect we may have a chilly open to winter this year. It’s certainly on the table.

GFS operational

EPS Control

Even the GFS ensemble sees the big block!

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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