Both West and East coasts are under storm systems this afternoon. While the western system dives into the West and is set to cause problems with snow in the mountains, severe weather on the Plains and potentially very strong wind and high waves on the Great Lakes later in the week, the Southeast system continues to bring flooding rains across the Southeast.

Here’s model evolution of the surface pattern today through Thursday.

Note the tropical low lifts north through the Mid-Atlantic and then out to sea off NYC while the Western system takes center stage, particularly midweek.

Satellite view of the Southeast system today.

Infrared view of the system driving heavy low level rains and mountains snows to N/C California.

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1-2ft of snow from the Sierra to Wasatch next 36 hours. Denver looks likely to see it’s first 2-3 inch snow, possibly 6+ for Cheyenne.

North entrance to Lassen Natl Park this morning.

Mammoth Mountain receives a fresh 10 inches within the last 24 hours.

Once the low crosses the Rockies and pushes onto the Plains, the severe weather threat increases as warm, moist air collides with cool, dry air out of Canada. This forces deepening of the low, greatly increases instability, rainfall, wind, large hail and isolated tornado potential.

Strong upper level energy moves out onto the Plains.

Surface view.

SPC has enhanced risk out for Wednesday.

Tornadoes aren’t uncommon in November.

This increase in temperature gradient will help deepen the low between Kansas and Michigan. By the time the low is over Michigan, central pressure could be down to between 978-985mb, generating wind gusts widely of 20-40 but out over the open Lakes, 65 mph with wave heights reaching 20ft.

Looking out to next week and beyond and it looks very like the Pacific pattern rules the US with further storm systems sweeping in and crossing the country brings wet, sometimes wild to the West, stormy on the Plains and mild further east through probably the 20th but I am watching the later of the month for ridging building north and west into Arctic Canada and perhaps extending back towards Alaska because this may force a much colder Thanksgiving. Remember, this Pacific flow across the US means cold air is building fast over an increasing Eurasia-Canada snow cover.

EPS shows the Pacific rule and potential colder end to the month by day 10-15.

See video for the discussion.

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