Back a few days ago the models were suggesting a really poor weekend for bonfires and fireworks displays, however, despite the rapid arrival of these heavy rain and moderate wind baring depressions, there looks to be good timing in the passing of these fronts.

Today, it’s wet and breezy but the latest front clears later this afternoon into the North Sea making way for a largely dry night for bonfire parties. Just hours after the parties end, the next batch of heavy rain will push into SW parts of the UK and cross the country through Saturday but this too looks to clear in time for Saturday night bonfires. Once Saturday evening parties draw to a close, the next spell of wind and rain moves in overnight.

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Friday and Saturday evening’s both look fairly dry give or take some showers and winds won’t be too strong with temps comfortable at between 10-15C around 7-9pm tonight and tomorrow night.

So, each day sees a new front push in and with a strong jet streaming fast over our heads, the low pressure conveyor will continue through much of next week adding up rain totals quickly to open November. Monday looks to be the windier of the days as a tighter low skirts the NW Scotland coast. Widespread gales are possible across NI, Scotland and N England.

As stated, this setup dramatically increases the rainfall and even flood risk through the next 7-10 days. A complete turnaround from the last 8 or so weeks but perfectly fits the long range forecast I’ve had since August.

Next 7 days rainfall totals.

10 days

UK next 10 days.

ECMWF surface through late next week. Note the colder air entraining the strong westerly flow mid next week. Snow showers possible over higher ground.

Snow levels drop through next week as well below freezing air reaches the 850mb level.

Notice in the below ECMWF snow charts how snow increases over the Scottish Highlands, even central Europe between day 7-10.

Next 7 days

10 days.

UK close up.

Why the sudden flip from dry and settled to all the stormy, mild conditions for both Europe and eastern North America?

Here’s why.

Notice both indexes go from strong positive hence the negative over positive height field but NAO/AO heads towards neutral or negative over the next 10-15 days. Change to colder late month?

Interestingly the 50hpa polar stratospheric profile shows the PV sliding off the pole towards Alaska and NE Asia with warming between Canada and Scandinavia between day 7 and 10.

168 hours.

240 hours

After a very mild and soggy November 2009, that month ended cold.

This may signify a reverse in the upper wind flow with more arctic/continental influence for both sides of the mid-latitude Atlantic between 16-26th Nov.

The ECMWF doesn’t see it but the GFS ensemble does. Especially day 10-15.

Nice Greenland block develops.

Worth a watching at least.

See the video for more.

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Tags: europe winter, flooding, gales, heavy rain, UK Snow, UK Storm, uk winter, winter