It’s turned considerably more unsettled across the UK, Ireland and Northwest Europe this week thanks to a pretty significant shift in the upper pattern. This has brought an abrupt end to our sustained spell of dry, settled weather and in response, storm and flood weary southern Europe catches a proper break. The jet stream has lost it’s split and by merging back into one stream, disturbed weather pulls out of southern Europe and finally repositions over the Ireland, UK and Scandinavia.

We see one front after another cross the UK today through next weekend as an active ‘conga line’ gets fired up frequent spells of heavy, persistent rain and gusty to gale-force winds.

Note the upper level setup below has turned on it’s head from September and October with lowest heights, wettest weather across the North while high pressure regains dominance across the South and Med.

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500mb height anomaly

Rainfall next 10 days.

Jet stream position this week.

Along with the mild air comes potentiall more moisture and this is the perfect setup like we saw in 2009 for flooding rain events.

Still looks to turn particularly windy through the second half of the upcoming weekend.

Expected 10m wind gusts Sunday off ECMWF.

Continued wet and windy through next week and a touch cooler as winds veer westerly and remain strong.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean shows the structure of the upper atmosphere shifting with pronounced wet-subtropical influence

Day 0-5, SW flow. Can equal bigger rains.

Day 5-10 sees a more zonal flow which is cooler.

Interesting to see the blocking high developing over the Davis Straits day 10-15. Colder end of the month scenario for UK & Europe?

ECMWF snow through next 10 days.

See the video for more.

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