November looks increasingly likely to be a mild month and it sure did start off that way yesterday.

Before yesterday, you had to rewind all the way back to 1946 for when the UK last enjoyed a day in the 20s (C) during November. The warmest temperature ever recorded during November was 21.7C set in mid Wales. Yesterday saw that long standing record break with a new benchmark of 22.4C being set at Trawsgoed, Wales. The average for November 1 is a mere 12C!

Surface pattern which produced the UK’s warmest day in November.

Unusually warm air for early November at 5,000ft above England and Wales. Chilly where fog lingers but warm where sunny.

During the early hours of Halloween, temperatures climbed on the Moray Coast of Scotland, peaking at a MID-SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON value of 17C in the wake of a passing warm front which drew in warm, moist Med air. The morning before it was down to 2C!

Thanks to a strengthening positive NAO/AO, it looks like twin ridges will set up and hold over both eastern North America and western Europe much of the month with a deepening trough of low pressure settling over the polar region extending south over Greenland into the North Atlantic. The deeper the trough extends south over Greenland, the more heat is transferred north from the subtropics into both eastern US/Canada as well as UK/Western Europe. November was mild and wet in the UK/Western Europe, downright warm over most of the US.

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Don’t fret if you are like me (a winter weather lover) because this is a good setup for ‘building and intensifying’ of the all important polar vortex. This strengthening low in the high latitudes forces the cold to bundle and build, increasing the expanse of arctic sea ice.

We saw this back in 1946, 2009 and during other El Nino years. Some of our biggest winters here in the UK and Western Europe saw a warm Sep/Oct/Nov following a cool, wet summer.

GFS ensemble and CFSv2 weeklies both show the +NAO/AO with twin ridging holding firm through much of the month.

GFS ensemble

5-day mean 2-metre temp anomaly off GFS ensemble.

CFSv2 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

While some will go to the 1997-98 idea, others will go to 2009-10 but I think you’ll agree that the summer and autumn pattern as well as SST profile is looking a lot more like 2009 than 1997.

November 2009

Winter which followed. Note the flip in heights between Nov and winter… Opposite!

November 1997

Winter which followed.

Again opposite heights but led to warm, winter. 1946 saw a warn November and this was followed by one of the UK’s worst winters.

See this morning’s video for more.

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