As you know, there’s a very distinct battle between Atlantic low pressure and continental high pressure this week and as is often the case with amplified or meridional patterns, while one area is warm, it’s typically cold elsewhere. So while the West of Europe including the UK and Ireland is in the mild air, it’s decidedly more winter-like east of Poland.

It would seem the continental high wins for the most part this week as far west as EASTERN Britain, certainly France, Belgium and Netherlands. This high is essentially stopping any eastward progression of the low spinning out over the Atlantic. However, associated fronts will affect the UK but a persistent and mild SSE wind will keep temps unusually mild for late October. Expect spells of rain with times of persistent rain where fronts get stuck overhead.

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A large swathe of the continent looks fine, dry and settled with plenty of autumn sunshine from Netherlands across Germany and Poland down into the Alps thanks to the large and unusually strong near 1050 high dominates. Further east and a cold easterly flow drives a modest brand of Siberian air west affecting Moscow, Kiev and possibly Bucharest with spells of snow and well below freezing nights with a struggle to get much above freezing by day.

GFS snow forecast through next 7 days.

There’s a west-east temperature divide across the continent not just for October’s final week but for November’s opening week. Position of low and high means a mild, southerly air flow for the west including UK, France and Low Countries but NNE winds will keep it colder than normal but nothing unusual over Russia, Baltics south into Ukraine.

Upcoming 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies according to GFS ensemble.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2m temp anomalies.

Day 1-5

Day 6-10

Day 11-15

Not a wet pattern next 2 weeks.

Week 1

Week 2

GFS surface

Temps will be mild throughout this week and most probably next too. Some days over parts of the central and southern UK could conceivably reach 19-21C, sunshine dependant.

Check out the contrast on some days this week between UK and Russia.

Temp anomaly for Saturday.

Don’t fret about the mild November weather if your hoping for a cold, snowy winter. November 2009 wasn’t cold but very mild and very wet. Winter didn’t truly kick in until a week before Christmas that year. Mild November’s DON’T signify a mild winter.

See this morning’s video for more.

WINTER FORECAST WILL BE RELEASED THIS SUNDAY (NOV 1)

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Tags: cold, europe weather, europe winter, november forecast, snow, uk weather, uk winter