With the strongest, coldest trough drilling into the Eastern United States, we have a ‘ripple effect’ change in the trans-atlantic pattern this week. That US trough will have a ripple effect that will break through the protective wall of high pressure that’s be anchored over Western Europe for the best part of two weeks.

Up until now, the seasonably strong jet departing North America has managed to cross the first 1,000 miles of N Atlantic Ocean but came up against a solid wall of high pressure, like a bounder in a river, this has essentially rerouted the jet north and south in a dramatic split.

However, change is coming. Downstream waves created by this plunge in the jet over the US means the jet will penetrate this block, finally moving it out of the way and so the storm track will return to a more typically state, pushing between Scotland and Iceland with fronts bringing the return of wet and windy conditions to the UK.

This morning’s visible satellite view over Europe shows somewhat cloudier skies over the UK while a strong, near stationary low spins just off the Iberian west coast bringing spells of heavy, flooding rain, thunderstorms and strong winds.

Threatening skies over Gibraltar yesterday thanks to the cells moving through in association of that deep low to the west.

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Strong instability associated with this low is bringing lots of thunderstorm clusters across southern Portugal and Spain.

Heavy rain totals as a result.

As a result of the cloudier skies over the UK, it was less cold this morning compared to yesterday.

-5C at Braemar early Sat AM.

Skies remain sunny enough here in central Scotland to reveal our busy air space, the cross roads for trans Atlantic flight!

Here comes that flick of the ‘skipping rope’.

Looks like the first system arrives proper late Tuesday into early Wednesday across Northern Ireland and Scotland but this is quickly followed by a stronger system Thursday into Friday which looks to bring the first gales of autumn.

Widespread 50-55kt wind gusts expected over Scotland with this system.

See today’s video for more.

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