There’s strong similarity now showing between October of this year and October 2009 with strong blocking shielding the UK and Northwest from the typical stormy Atlantic. The the storm traffic the Atlantic typically throws our way at this time of year is being redirected north and south. The tranquil October this year and in 2009 followed an uncanny similar cool/wet summer with deep trough positioned just off Ireland while positive heights dominate north Greenland into the pole.

October 2009 500mb height anomaly

Europe

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Latest model runs take this stubborn but tranquil pattern to the 20th and then we begin to see heights fall up towards Iceland as the high starts to break in the west and build further east.

GFS ensemble

I’m anticipating a more fluid pattern from the 22nth on into November but as of now.

Looks like Portugal and Spain has quite the system on the way early next week and considerably more impressive than Joaquin was last week.

As for the UK, expect more of the same type of weather through the weekend and early next week before change arrives mid next week. Mix of sun and cloud by day with highs 10-15C and mixed clear and cloud with mist/fog patches by night. Rural lows at or below freezing where clearest for longest. The exception being the Southeast of England where a gusty NE wind will keep showers going as well as making it feel cold.

As was the case back at the beginning of July, a warm start to the month is turning colder as the month wears on and October is likely to be the UK’s 7th straight below normal month.

Yesterday’s temperature anomaly.

Month to date.

See video for today’s discussion.

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