The persistency of the northern (Scandinavia) blocking in recent WEEKS has been impressive. Though it came and went late September, it soon returned and as a result, rainfall has become sparse in areas which where wettest back in summer over southern Europe.

We’ve pretty much reached the mid way point of October and it looks to me as though this could be one of the driest October’s.

This trend follows a dry September.

Between the 4-10th, precipitation has been very scarce over Scandinavia extending down into eastern Europe, largely due to high pressure and air coming in from a dry source (Siberia)

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This setup doesn’t support a whole lot of rain for the UK into near continent through the next 7 days but plenty more rain for Italy and south-central Europe as low pressure remains trapped over the Med.

With the cold now entrenched over west-central Europe, the low that’s forcing a ‘red warming’ for heavy rain and potential flash flooding in Campania and Lazio, Italy continues to throw moisture north.

Accumulating snow is now in Germany and is expected to edge into eastern France with heavy amounts for the Alps.

Up to 2.7 inches of snow was reported early this morning in Hof, southern Germany.

Beautiful winter scenes from the town of Jena, Germany this morning.

UK remains firmly beneath the influence of high pressure into at least early next week and there’s no tangible sign of change through October 23 but we may see a height field shift towards months end.

See this morning’s video for latest discussion.

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